Convenience sales to drop as foodservice recovers
New analysis into consumer trends suggests convenience sales are set to slide as foodservice begins to recover.
Insight formed from SalesOut’s wholesale data has identified a correlation between foodservice and retail sales by comparing lockdown figures versus 2019 performance.
And while the pick up in foodservice business is positive for one side of the industry, the see-saw impact points to less good news for convenience.
The findings could help the sector predict what will happen next, as hospitality businesses gradually reawaken following their enforced closure due to coronavirus lockdown measures.
SalesOut’s data shows that in March, as lockdown measures came into force, convenience gained 13p for every £1 foodservice lost.
These regression analysis techniques allow SalesOut to predict what may happen to retail convenience sales as foodservice channels rise to within 70% of pre-Covid levels.
The model suggests a predicted 40% growth in foodservice orders in the next month could lead to a 4.5% decline in overall convenience sales, with a revenue drop of £1.8 million. The data also shows that, while spend per customer will fall, customer count will increase by 7% as lockdown measures continue to ease.
For now, convenience sales remain 16% above pre-Covid levels, although this could yet change.coronavirus covid-19 Foodservice hospitality insight retail SalesOut